Q2 2026 Cabo Luxury Real Estate Market Report: Prices, Inventory, and Buyer Trends
Baja California Sur real estate sales (homes, condos and land, including La Paz) totaled $1.59 billion in 2025, up 12% from $1.42 billion (BHHS Baja Real Estate, February 2026). In Q1 2025, luxury properties made up 77% of dollar volume (VanSirius, 2025). Q2 2026 closings came in below Q2 2025: 399 sales worth $361.7 million, down 13.8% and 26.6% year over year, though volume rose 30% from Q1 2026 (BHHS Baja, Q2 2026 report).
This report draws on publicly available market data to give buyers and investors a current, unvarnished picture of where this market stands and where it is heading.
Key Figures
- Baja California Sur real estate sales (homes, condos and land, including La Paz) totaled $1.59B in 2025, +12% YoY; H1 2025 alone reached $878M, +24% over H1 2024
- Luxury represents 77% of total dollar volume; the $2M-$5M tier saw 48 transactions totaling $166M in Q1 2025 alone
- 60% of Los Cabos properties sold in 2025 were purchased by US buyers
- Los Cabos STR market: 4,914 active Airbnb listings, 56% avg occupancy, $177 ADR, $37K avg annual host revenue, 92.5% international guests, US the top origin
- 9 new nonstop US/Canada/Panama routes launched in 2025; airlift is the single most reliable demand indicator for Cabo real estate investors
How Did the Los Cabos Market Perform in 2025?
Baja California Sur real estate sales (homes, condos and land, including La Paz) totaled $1.59 billion in 2025, up 12% from $1.42 billion (BHHS Baja Real Estate, February 2026). The first half of 2025 was particularly strong: 1,038 properties changed hands for a combined $878 million, a 24% increase over the same period in 2024 (Oceanside Real Estate, mid-2025). Volume in the second half of 2025 was roughly flat against the second half of 2024.
The structural shift worth noting is the compression of inventory at the ultra-luxury end. Buyers should expect more negotiating room than in 2022-2023, though realistic pricing expectations still matter.
What Are Prices Doing in Q2 2026?
Q1 2025 averages reported by VanSirius put prices in the Los Cabos market at $727,000 for standard homes, $793,000 for condos, and $1.32 million for luxury-tier homes. These averages span the full market, including the resort-corridor condos and sub-$1M communities that are not The Oppenheim Group Cabo’s primary market. In the communities we operate in, prices sit considerably higher.
The East Cape is drawing new branded development, including Four Seasons and Amanvari at Costa Palmas, driven by buyers who want a quieter, marina-centered experience than the Corridor or Cabo San Lucas proper offers.
Who Is Buying in Los Cabos Right Now?
Century 21 Legendary Realty reports that 60% of the 2025 Los Cabos sales in the transactions it analyzed went to US buyers (December 2025). Over 40,000 properties were purchased by foreign nationals across Mexico in 2024, representing roughly 10% of all national real estate transactions (The Real Deal, November 2025).
Buyers should come prepared with community preferences, basic fideicomiso (bank trust) knowledge, and current sold prices.
What Is Driving Demand? The Airlift Story
Los Cabos International Airport now serves more than 600 weekly flights. Nine new nonstop US, Canada, and Panama routes launched in 2025, with three additional routes confirmed for 2026 (The Cabo Sun, November 2025). Of the 4.5 million annual visitors to Baja California Sur, roughly 70% choose Los Cabos specifically.
Airlift is the metric most investors underweight when analyzing Cabo’s real estate fundamentals. A new nonstop route from a major US feeder city does not just bring more tourists. It brings more potential buyers who visit, fall in love, and return.
Hotel performance confirms the same story. Average daily rates at Cabo’s resort hotels climbed to $517/night in 2024, a record (Mexico News Daily, 2024). Hotel demand is the leading indicator for vacation rental demand, which in turn drives real estate buyer interest.
Short-Term Rental Market: Opportunity and Emerging Risk
The Los Cabos short-term rental market generated an average of $37,000 USD annually per host as of early 2026, at a nightly rate near $177 USD with 56% annual occupancy. About 92.5% of guests are international visitors, with the United States the top origin (Airbtics, March 2026). For luxury-tier properties in Pedregal, Palmilla, and Quivira, top-performing vacation rentals significantly exceed these averages.
The risk factor investors need to watch is supply growth. Active STR listings in Los Cabos grew 19.4% year-over-year and 76.2% over the past three years (Airbtics, March 2026). Over the past year occupancy held at 56% while listings grew 19.4%, but over three years occupancy fell 8.2% and per-host revenue fell 9.6% (Airbtics). But yield compression is a real possibility in the $500K-$1.5M condo and villa tier. High-end, well-managed properties in premium communities are less affected by supply dynamics because they compete on quality and location, not price.
Los Cabos does not cap how many nights a home can be rented (as of 2026). Owners still have federal tax registration and state lodging-tax obligations and may need a municipal operating license, and many HOAs add their own rental rules. Mexico City, by contrast, limits rentals to half the nights in a year and requires host registration. This regulatory advantage is worth protecting. Buyers considering purchases in HOA communities with no-rental clauses should factor this carefully.
Q3-Q4 2026 Outlook: Where Is This Market Heading?
What does the second half of 2026 look like? Three dynamics are worth watching.
First, the ultra-luxury pipeline is constrained. Pedregal and Palmilla have very limited land for new development. Supply of finished product in the $8M-$30M range is thin. Buyers at this tier should expect continued seller discipline on price, with the most realistic negotiating opportunities in properties that have been on the market for twelve months or more.
Second, the East Cape’s development pipeline continues to build out. Costa Palmas and Rancho Leonero-area properties are attracting buyers who have been priced out of the Corridor’s most established communities or who actively prefer the quieter, marina-lifestyle aesthetic of the East Cape.
Third, buyer qualification has tightened. The July 2025 reform to Mexico’s anti-money-laundering law expanded notaries’ client-identification and beneficial-owner documentation duties, so buyers should have ID, banking and tax records ready before the notary stage.
The insight we would offer any serious buyer entering the Q2-Q3 2026 market: turnkey properties with clean rental history and clear fideicomiso (bank trust) documentation are easier to sell. Bare-lot listings and properties requiring significant renovation sat significantly longer, reflecting buyer preference for immediate cash flow and low friction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the average price of a luxury home in Los Cabos in 2026?
The average luxury home price in Los Cabos was $1.32 million in early 2025 (VanSirius).
Is 2026 a good time to buy in Cabo?
2025 sales volume rose 12% over 2024 (BHHS Baja, February 2026), but Q2 2026 volume was down 26.6% from Q2 2025 (BHHS Baja, Q2 2026). For buyers with a 5-10 year horizon, constrained supply at the ultra-luxury end and continued airlift growth make 2026 a well-supported entry point. Short-term speculators face a less forgiving environment than 2021.
How much has Cabo real estate appreciated in recent years?
The SHF (Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal) government house price index ranked Los Cabos among Mexico’s top two municipalities for appreciation in Q4 2025.
What percentage of Cabo buyers are Americans?
US buyers accounted for approximately 60% of Los Cabos property transactions in 2025 (Century 21 Legendary Realty, December 2025). Across Mexico broadly, US buyers represented 65% of all foreign purchases in 2024, when over 40,000 properties were sold to foreign nationals nationwide (The Real Deal, November 2025).
What is the short-term rental yield in Los Cabos?
The Los Cabos STR market averaged $37,000 USD in annual revenue per host as of early 2026, with average occupancy of 56% and ADR of approximately $177/night (Airbtics, March 2026). Premium luxury properties in well-managed Corridor and Pacific-side communities can exceed these averages.
What is the fastest-growing area in Los Cabos right now?
The East Cape is drawing new branded development, including Four Seasons and Amanvari at Costa Palmas. Earlier-stage pricing, marina lifestyle, and brand-name development anchors are attracting buyers who want Cabo’s amenities with a quieter setting than the main Corridor.
About Alen Fabjan
Alen Fabjan is Sales Director and Broker at The Oppenheim Group Cabo, with more than 17 years of sales experience, including leading teams selling luxury residences. He works alongside Jason Oppenheim and The Oppenheim Group team, which has closed more than $3.5 billion in real estate. Reach The Oppenheim Group Cabo at office@ogroup.com or +52.624.224.8328.
