Q2 2026 Cabo Luxury Real Estate Market Report: Prices, Inventory, and Buyer Trends
Los Cabos residential real estate generated $1.59 billion in total sales volume in 2025, a 12% increase over the prior year, with luxury properties priced above $1 million accounting for 77 cents of every dollar transacted in the region (BHHS Baja Real Estate, March 2026; VanSirius Luxury Real Estate, September 2025). The momentum has carried into Q2 2026, driven by record airlift, sustained US buyer demand, and a short-term rental market that now generates an average of $37,000 USD per year per host.
This report draws on The Oppenheim Group Cabo’s transaction experience and publicly available market data to give buyers and investors a current, unvarnished picture of where this market stands and where it is heading.
Key Takeaways
– Los Cabos hit $1.59B in residential sales volume in 2025, +12% YoY; H1 2025 alone reached $878M, +24% over H1 2024
– Luxury ($1M+) represents 77% of total dollar volume; the $2M-$5M tier saw 48 transactions totaling $166M in Q1 2025 alone
– 60% of all Los Cabos properties sold in 2025 were purchased by US buyers
– Los Cabos STR market: 4,914 active Airbnb listings, 56% avg occupancy, $177 ADR, $37K avg annual host revenue — 92.5% of guests are US nationals
– 9 new nonstop US/Canada/Panama routes launched in 2025; airlift is the single most reliable demand indicator for Cabo real estate investors
How Did the Los Cabos Market Perform in 2025?
Baja California Sur’s residential real estate market closed 2025 at $1.59 billion in total sales, up 12% from $1.42 billion in 2024 (BHHS Baja Real Estate, March 2026). The first half of 2025 was particularly strong: 1,038 properties changed hands for a combined $878 million, a 24% increase over the same period in 2024 (Oceanside Real Estate, mid-2025). That pace slowed modestly in H2 2025 as interest rate uncertainty softened discretionary buyer sentiment globally, but the market absorbed the deceleration without a meaningful correction in asking prices.
The structural shift worth noting is the compression of inventory at the ultra-luxury end. Properties above $10 million in communities like Palmilla, Pedregal, and the East Cape corridor saw median days-on-market increase from roughly 180 days in 2023 to 240-300 days in 2025. This is not a demand problem — it reflects sellers holding firm on pricing in a market with very limited comparable supply. For buyers, it means more negotiating room than in 2022-2023, but realistic expectations on pricing still matter.
What Are Prices Doing in Q2 2026?
Average prices in the Los Cabos market in 2025 came in at $727,000 for standard homes, $793,000 for condos, and $1.32 million for luxury-tier homes (VanSirius, September 2025). These averages span the full market, including the resort-corridor condos and sub-$1M communities that are not The Oppenheim Group Cabo’s primary market. In the communities we operate in, prices sit considerably higher.
| Community | Location | Q2 2026 Typical Price Range | Segment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pedregal | Cabo San Lucas | $3M – $25M+ | Ultra-luxury |
| Palmilla | Corridor (San Jose side) | $5M – $35M+ | Ultra-luxury |
| Querencia | Corridor (private club) | $3M – $15M | Ultra-luxury |
| Chileno Bay | Mid-Corridor | $2M – $20M+ | Ultra-luxury |
| Costa Palmas | East Cape | $2M – $20M+ | Fastest growing sub-market |
| Diamante | Pacific side | $1.5M – $12M | Premium luxury |
| Quivira | Pacific side | $800K – $6M | Accessible luxury entry |
The fastest-growing sub-market remains the East Cape, anchored by Costa Palmas (Four Seasons, Amanvari) and driven by buyers who want a quieter, marina-centered experience than the Corridor or Cabo San Lucas proper offers. We are tracking consistent 15-20% year-over-year price appreciation in East Cape luxury product as of Q2 2026, compared to 8-12% in more established Corridor communities.
Who Is Buying in Los Cabos Right Now?
US buyers accounted for 60% of all Los Cabos property transactions in 2025, per data compiled from BCS MLS records (Century 21 Legendary Realty, December 2025). Over 40,000 properties were purchased by foreign nationals across Mexico in 2024, representing roughly 10% of all national real estate transactions (The Real Deal, November 2025).
According to The Oppenheim Group Cabo’s Q2 2026 transaction data, the buyer profile we are seeing most consistently is a US household with a primary residence in California, Texas, or the Pacific Northwest, aged 48-62, seeking a second home that can generate vacation rental income while not in personal use. The pure investment buyer — the spreadsheet-first buyer who leads with cap rate and yield — has become more active since 2024 as Cabo’s institutional investment profile has matured.
What has changed noticeably in Q1-Q2 2026 compared to 2023-2024 is the depth of buyer preparation. The typical buyer we work with today has done six to eighteen months of research before their first conversation with us. They arrive with specific community preferences, basic fideicomiso (bank trust) knowledge, and a sense of current asking prices. This is a materially more informed buyer cohort than what we saw during the post-COVID surge years, and it tends to produce more deliberate, successful transactions.
What Is Driving Demand? The Airlift Story
Los Cabos International Airport now serves more than 600 weekly flights. Nine new nonstop US, Canada, and Panama routes launched in 2025, with three additional routes confirmed for 2026 (The Cabo Sun, November 2025). Of the 4.5 million annual visitors to Baja California Sur, roughly 70% choose Los Cabos specifically.
Airlift is the metric most investors underweight when analyzing Cabo’s real estate fundamentals. A new nonstop route from a major US feeder city does not just bring more tourists — it brings more potential buyers who visit, fall in love, and return. The correlation between new route launches and upticks in real estate inquiries from those origin cities is consistent in our experience. The United and American nonstop expansions from Houston, Chicago, and Charlotte in 2025 brought meaningful new buyer cohorts from those markets.
Hotel performance confirms the same story. Average hotel occupancy in Los Cabos reached 74% in July 2025, with an average of 69% occupancy across January through May 2025 (FITURCA Los Cabos Tourism Observatory, 2025). Average daily rates at Cabo’s resort hotels climbed to $517/night in 2024, a record (Mexico News Daily, 2024). Hotel demand is the leading indicator for vacation rental demand, which in turn drives real estate buyer interest.
Short-Term Rental Market: Opportunity and Emerging Risk
The Los Cabos short-term rental market generated an average of $37,000 USD annually per host as of early 2026, at a nightly rate near $177 USD with 56% annual occupancy. Over 92% of guests are US nationals, insulating revenue from peso/dollar conversion risk (Airbtics, March 2026). For luxury-tier properties in Pedregal, Palmilla, and Quivira, top-performing vacation rentals significantly exceed these averages.
The risk factor investors need to watch is supply growth. Active STR listings in Los Cabos grew 19.4% year-over-year and 76.2% over the past three years (Airbtics, March 2026). A market can absorb supply growth when demand grows proportionally, and so far demand has kept pace. But yield compression is a real possibility in the $500K-$1.5M condo and villa tier, where the supply increase has been concentrated. High-end, well-managed properties in premium communities are less affected by supply dynamics because they compete on quality and location, not price.
One structural advantage Los Cabos retains over competing vacation rental markets: there are no municipal night caps or mandatory registration requirements as of Q2 2026. Mexico City capped STRs at 180 days per year in late 2024 and requires host registration. Los Cabos has no such restrictions at the municipal level. Any limitations are HOA-specific. This regulatory advantage is worth protecting — buyers considering purchases in HOA communities with no-rental clauses should factor this carefully.
Q3-Q4 2026 Outlook: Where Is This Market Heading?
What does the second half of 2026 look like? Three dynamics are worth watching.
First, the ultra-luxury pipeline is constrained. Pedregal and Palmilla have very limited land for new development. Supply of finished product in the $8M-$30M range is thin. Buyers at this tier should expect continued seller discipline on price, with the most realistic negotiating opportunities in properties that have been on the market for twelve months or more.
Second, the East Cape is accelerating. Costa Palmas, La Paz corridor, and Rancho Leonero-area properties are attracting buyers who have been priced out of the Corridor’s most established communities or who actively prefer the quieter, marina-lifestyle aesthetic of the East Cape. We expect East Cape luxury to be the strongest appreciating sub-market for the next 24-36 months.
Third, buyer qualification has tightened. The July 2025 AML reform requiring source-of-funds documentation at closing has added complexity to the purchase process. Buyers who arrive without their banking history and tax documentation organized face four to eight week delays at the notario stage. This has, unintentionally, filtered the buyer pool toward more financially organized purchasers — which is a positive for transaction certainty on the sell side.
The insight we would offer any serious buyer entering the Q2-Q3 2026 market: the properties that moved fastest in Q1 2026 were not the cheapest listings — they were the most turnkey. Fully furnished, professionally managed properties with clean rental history and clear fideicomiso (bank trust) documentation closed in 90-120 days. Bare-lot listings and properties requiring significant renovation sat significantly longer, reflecting buyer preference for immediate cash flow and low friction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the average price of a luxury home in Los Cabos in 2026?
The average luxury home price in Los Cabos in 2025 was $1.32 million across all luxury-tier properties (VanSirius, September 2025). In the premium communities The Oppenheim Group Cabo focuses on (Pedregal, Palmilla, Querencia, Diamante, Quivira), entry price points start at $800K for a condo and run to $35M+ for Palmilla beachfront estates.
Is 2026 a good time to buy in Cabo?
Los Cabos is in a measured-growth phase after the post-COVID surge. Sales volume is up 12% YoY but buyer behavior is more deliberate than in 2022-2023 (BHHS Baja, March 2026). For buyers with a 5-10 year horizon, constrained supply at the ultra-luxury end and continued airlift growth make 2026 a well-supported entry point. Short-term speculators face a less forgiving environment than 2021.
How much has Cabo real estate appreciated in recent years?
Los Cabos luxury prices rose an estimated 18% in 2025 and approximately 50%-108% over the prior five years depending on property type and community (TheLatinvestor, April 2026). The SHF (Sociedad Hipotecaria Federal) government house price index ranked Los Cabos among Mexico’s top two municipalities for appreciation in Q4 2025.
What percentage of Cabo buyers are Americans?
US buyers accounted for approximately 60% of all Los Cabos property transactions in 2025 (Century 21 Legendary Realty, December 2025). Across Mexico broadly, US buyers represented 65% of all foreign purchases in 2024, when over 40,000 properties were sold to foreign nationals nationwide (The Real Deal, November 2025).
What is the short-term rental yield in Los Cabos?
The Los Cabos STR market averaged $37,000 USD in annual revenue per host as of early 2026, with average occupancy of 56% and ADR of approximately $177/night (Airbtics, March 2026). Premium luxury properties in well-managed Corridor and Pacific-side communities routinely exceed these averages. Gross yields of 6%-10% are achievable for well-selected properties.
What is the fastest-growing area in Los Cabos right now?
The East Cape, anchored by the Costa Palmas development (Four Seasons, Amanvari) and the broader La Paz/Cape region, is the fastest-growing luxury sub-market in Los Cabos as of Q2 2026. Earlier-stage pricing, marina lifestyle, and brand-name development anchors are attracting buyers who want Cabo’s amenities with a quieter setting than the main Corridor.
About Alen Fabjan
Alen Fabjan is the lead broker at The Oppenheim Group Cabo, a bilingual (English/Spanish) luxury real estate specialist with 17+ years of experience in the Los Cabos market. He works alongside Jason Oppenheim and the broader Oppenheim Group team, which has closed more than $3.5 billion in residential real estate transactions globally. Reach The Oppenheim Group Cabo at office@ogroup.com or +52.624.224.8328.